The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted Feb. 24 - 27.

It found Rep. Schiff with the support of 28% of likely voters. Republican former Major League Baseball player Steve Garvey had 20% support followed by Democrat Rep. Katie Porter with 17% and Democrat Rep. Barbara Lee with 8%.

Seventeen percent remained undecided.

“Both Garvey and Porter are within the poll's margin of error for second place in a race where a top-two finish would place them on the ballot in November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

The winner of the November runoff will succeed Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who held the seat from 1992 until her death in September 2023.

Among those who have already voted, the survey found 47% supported Schiff, 19% Porter, 18% Garvey, and 10% Lee. Among those who have yet to vote but are likely to do so, 30% support Schiff, 22% Garvey, and Porter 20%.

The survey also showed a vast majority of Californians, 69%, support California Proposition 1, a ballot measure that authorizes $6.38 billion in bonds to build treatment facilities for those with mental health and substance abuse issues.

Other poll results:

• Independents split: 27% support Schiff, 24% support Garvey, and 20% support Porter.
• A quarter (25%) of voters under 30 support Katie Porter, while 21% support Lee, and 20% Schiff.
• Schiff’s support is highest among voters over 70: 49% support Schiff, while 30% support Garvey.
• The economy is the top issue for 25% of voters, followed by housing affordability (15%), immigration (12%), healthcare (10%), crime (9%), threats to democracy (8%), and education (7%).
• President Biden holds a 50% job approval among likely California primary voters, and 38% disapprove of the job he is doing.
• Governor Gavin Newsom holds a 49% job approval while 39% disapprove of the job he is doing as Governor.
• In a potential 2024 matchup, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump 57% to 35%, while 9% are undecided.

The survey of 1,000 registered voters was conducted several days after the top four candidates participated in an Inside California Politics debate that aired on all six local Nexstar television stations in the Golden State.

Since January, Rep. Schiff has increased his support from 25% to 28%. Garvey’s support increased from 18% to 22%; Rep. Katie Porter has climbed from 13% to 16%, while Rep. Barbara Lee’s support remained largely flat at 9%, the poll found.

17% of likely voters said they were still undecided, down from 24% in the previous Emerson College/Nexstar poll, and a handful of other candidates remain in the low single-digits.

The poll has an error margin of three percentage points.

“Candidate support varies by age group,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Schiff’s support is highest among voters in their 60s, at 45%, and those over 70, with 39%, whereas Porter’s strength is among young voters, where she holds 23%. Notably, this group has the highest share of undecided voters at 28%. Garvey’s strength is also with older voters, with 33% support among voters over 70.”

Voters were also asked if they knew about or watched last Monday’s debate and, if so, who they believe won. 69% of those surveyed were familiar with the debate. 33% said Schiff won, followed by 19% for Porter, 18% for Garvey, and 9% said Lee.

21% of those surveyed said no candidate emerged as the clear winner.

The top two candidates from the March 5 primary will face each other in November’s general election to determine who will succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

Other poll findings:

• The economy remains the top issue facing California voters (27%), followed by immigration (14%), housing affordability (14%), crime (11%), healthcare (9%), homelessness (8%), education (7%), threats to democracy (5%), and abortion (3%).
• Independent voters are split between Garvey (23%) and Schiff (22%).
• Voters were asked which candidate they trust to do the best job on a series of issues, regardless of which candidate they plan to vote for.
  • Crime: 32% Schiff, 25% Garvey, 19% Porter, and 12% Lee.
  • Homelessness: 29% Schiff, 26% Garvey, 20% Porter, and 13% Lee.
  • War in Israel and Gaza: 33% Schiff, 25% Garvey, 14% Porter, and 12% Lee.
  • Immigration: 32% Schiff, 27% Garvey, 17% Porter, and 11% Lee.
  • Abortion: 26% Porter, 25% Schiff, 23% Garvey, and 11% Lee.

In his answer, Garvey revealed he has voted twice for Trump - but would not say if he would vote for him again. Garvey said on the podium that "the greatest single currency we have as Americans is the right to vote."

"I think it's personal. I'll make that decision when the time comes," he said. "And I hope this puts to an end the constant badgering and the use of the former president's name as an attack against me."

Garvey continued to say it would also be his personal decision to make if he was ever offered an endorsement from Trump - without revealing if he would accept an endorsement from him.

"These are personal choices. I only answer to God, my wife, family, and to the people of California - and I hope you would respect that I have personal choices."

Rep. Adam Schiff, Steve Garvey, Rep. Katie Porter and Rep. Barbara Lee met at KRON-TV studios in San Francisco. The candidates touched on topics that voters said matter to them such as the economy, the minimum wage in California and homelessness.

Images capturing the candidates' most passionate moments during the debate can be seen below:

Among the highlights:

Steve Garvey said the minimum wage is "where it is and should be." Garvey also said "it's personal" on whether he would accept an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.

The candidates discussed a $50 minimum wage. They also discussed "the border crisis no one is talking about."

You can let us know: Who won the debate? Vote in the poll at this link.

Democrat Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee tried to stand out from one another and pitch themselves to voters as they hope to advance to the November runoff. Meanwhile, Republican Steve Garvey looked to make his case as the alternate choice for Californians who have grown tired of the Democratic status quo.

While Schiff, Porter and Lee seemed to operate with an unspoken truce, the Democrats took several swings at the Los Angeles Dodgers legend, hoping to knock him off balance and paint him as a MAGA Republican who aligns closely with Donald Trump.

Here are four moments that people will be talking about after the California U.S. Senate debate.

TRUMP

The 45th President of the United States, and the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, was a major topic in Monday's debate.

The three Democrats were united in their belief that Trump should not be allowed to be on the 2024 ballot, but said they would not hesitate to certify a Trump win if it were to happen.

"Donald Trump engaged in an insurrection and should not be on the ballot," Porter said.

Schiff, a major thorn in the side of Trump during his single term as POTUS, called his former rival the "greatest threat to democracy."

Garvey disagreed with Schiff's proclamation, calling the "deconstruction of the constitution" as the greatest threat to democracy, specifically citing removing the filibuster from Senate procedure and "packing" the Supreme Court.

Garvey's non-denouncement of the former president came into focus again just as it did weeks earlier the first time the four candidates sparred on the debate stage.

For the second time, Garvey, who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020, refused to say whom he would be voting for in the 2024 Presidential election.

“I think it’s personal. I’ll make that decision when the time comes,” Garvey said. “And I hope this puts to an end the constant badgering and the use of the former president’s name as an attack against me.”

The baseball legend did say that he hadn't talked to the former president since his campaign began and was mum about whether he would accept a Trump endorsement.

CRIME

The topic of retail theft and smash-and-grab burglaries led to arguably the most contentious moment of an otherwise civil debate.

Schiff agreed that burglaries and crime were a problem, adding that he's worked to build safe communities dating back to his time as a prosecutor with the United States Attorney's Office, saying that he's been prosecuting criminals since "back when Mr. Garvey was playing baseball."

As a non-politician, Garvey took an even harder stance and blamed crime in California on the powers that be, specifically singling out his debate opponents.

"There's never been more crime on the streets of California than today. And my opponents here, career politicians, it's been on their watch. They are responsible," Garvey said.

MINIMUM WAGE

Rep. Lee made waves recently for saying she believed that the federal minimum wage should be raised, possibly as high as $50 per hour.

On Monday, she didn't back down from that stance, citing a recent survey that found the cost of living in the Bay Area required an income in the six figures; a $50 minimum wage would land around $104,000.

While $50 per hour eclipses any of the other suggested raises from her Democrat colleagues, Lee said any raise to the federal minimum is desperately needed as long as affordability is taken into consideration.

“Just do the math. Of course we have national minimum wages that we need to raise to a living wage,” Lee said. “We’re talking about $20, $25, fine."

Garvey dismissed the idea, saying that the federal minimum wage was "where it is and should be."

"Instead of a Big Mac for $9, it's going to be $15," Garvey said.

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Perhaps no topic has a wider range of opinions than the ongoing crisis in Gaza and Israel's war with Hamas.

Schiff has been outspoken in his support of Israel and its right to defend itself, saying of Hamas, "they wanted this kind of response."

"Hamas is threatening to attack them over and over and over again, no nation could endure that," Schiff said. "At the same time, the President is right to continue pressing Israel to try to avoid civilian casualties to try to minimize the loss of civilian life."

Porter called on the United States and Israel to commit to rebuilding war-torn Gaza once the dust has settled and Hamas has been removed from power.

"I think the people of Gaza absolutely need different leadership," Porter said. "I think that any peace should come with the release of the hostages as well as a commitment by the United States and Israel to help rebuild Gaza and position it to flourish in the future."

Schiff, Lee and Porter all advocated for the "two-state solution," that would establish an independent state of Palestine alongside Israel.

Garvey called that idea "naïve."

"Israel will determine ... whether Hamas will survive," he said. "And to think there could be a two state state solution is naïve because one of those states will always try to annihilate Israel."

FAVORITE MEDIA

Another topic that came up, although not one that will likely determine the future of our nation, the four candidates were asked two simple questions: what is your favorite film and the last book you read.

Garvey said his favorite film was, fittingly, the Robert Redford baseball flick, "The Natural." The last book he read, Garvey said, was "The Case for Civility," by Os Guinness.

Schiff picked "The Big Lebowski," and said the last book he read was Ron Chernow's "Grant," a biography of the 18th President.

Lee's favorite film was "The Color Purple," and her most recently read book was "Beloved" by the late Toni Morrison.

The last book Porter read was "The Latecomers" by Helen Klein Ross and her favorite film was "Star Wars," although she didn't specify which one.

Who do you think won Monday's debate? Let us know here.

Was it one of the three Democratic members of the House: Adam Schiff, Katie Porter or Barbara Lee? Or was it Republican candidate Steve Garvey, who has not held public office before?
Let us know who you think won in the poll below:

It has been over a year since Porter announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate race. Soon after, the two other House members, Lee and Schiff, launched their campaigns.

It wasn't until the fall that Garvey announced he would enter the race after several months of speculation.

Recent polling from Inside California Politics and Emerson College Polling show Schiff strengthening his lead in the race, with Porter and Garvey fighting for second place.

Check back over the next few days to see the latest results from this unscientific debate poll.

In a debate Monday night, Rep. Barbara Lee defended her previous advocacy for a $50 minimum wage.

"In the Bay Area, I believe it was the United Way that came out with a report that very recently $127,000 for a family of four is just barely enough to get by," Lee said. "Another survey very recently: $104,000. For a family of one, barely enough to get by low income because of the affordability crisis."

A wage of $50 an hour would total $104,000 over the course of a year.

"Just do the math. Of course we have national minimum wages that we need to raise to a living wage," Lee said. "We're talking about $20, $25 – fine. But I have got to be focused on what California needs and what the affordability factor is when we calculate this wage."

Republican Steve Garvey said he was not in favor of changing the minimum wage.

"Again, minimum wage is where it is and should be," Garvey said. "If you look at what California has done to fast food franchises right now, increasing the minimum wage to $20. Then what’s going to happen? That’s going to increase costs for hard-working Californians to go to a franchise.”

In the past, Schiff and Porter offered a more measured approach.

At a previous debate in January, Porter suggested the minimum wage should be around $20 at the national level and $25 in California.

In the same debate, Schiff suggested a $25 national minimum wage.

Executives at McDonald’s and Chipotle Mexican Grill have already indicated menu price hikes are coming, and at least two major Pizza Hut franchise operators in California announced that they would be laying off all in-house delivery drivers as a result of the new law.

"Minimum wage is where it is and should be," said Steve Garvey during the debate Monday evening. "If you look at what California has done to fast food franchises right now, increasing the minimum wage to $20. Then what's going to happen? That's going to increase costs for hard-working Californians to go to a franchise."

It's at that point the bell is rung to indicate time has run out. However, Garvey continued.

"Instead of a Big Mac for $9, it's going to be $15."

You can see YourCentralValley.com's complete coverage of the debate by clicking here.

U.S. Representatives Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, Barbara Lee and Los Angeles Dodgers legend Steve Garvey will be sparring over the issues and trying to make themselves stand out in a crowded field.

The four leading candidates are all looking to fill the seat previously filled by longtime Democrat powerhouse Dianne Feinstein, who died in September 2023 after serving in the Senate for more than three decades.

Her seat in the U.S. Senate is currently being occupied by Laphonza Butler, who was appointed by California Governor Gavin Newsom to serve in an interim capacity until the voters could weigh in and elect their next U.S. Senator.

Feinstein's death leaves California in an unfamiliar spot in one of the most high-profile statewide elections in years.

KRON4's sister station in Los Angeles, KTLA 5 News, spoke with Jim Newton, lecturer in communications and public policy at UCLA and editor of UCLA Blueprint, to discuss what's at stake in this history-making election.

For one, whoever fills Feinstein's seat will have large shoes to fill, both as a member of the U.S. Senate and as a voice in their respective political party.

"Feinstein was among the most respected members of Congress in either house, in my lifetime," Newton said. "And so losing her and her experience is significant for California."

Feinstein had one of the longest tenures in the Senate and seniority in the chamber brings with it major influence. Whoever wins her seat in November won't have that luxury.

"Even a very capable senator to replace Feinstein will have to kind of start the clock over again, in terms of seniority," Newton said. "So in that sense, California has lost a historic representative, and the next person won't be that, at least right away."

In some ways, though, at least politically, Newton doesn't expect a whole lot to change if the state elects another Democrat, which he says is far and away the most likely outcome.

Another Democratic Senator would however likely land slightly left of Feinstein on the political spectrum, which may be a welcome sight to Californians in 2024.

"California is more liberal than she was," Newton said. "So in that sense, it may align the ideological position of California a little more closely to its representation."

While Newton expects a relatively easy win for the Democrats come November, the March primary is where things could get interesting.

Schiff, Porter and Lee, the three leading Democrats, will most assuredly siphon votes off from one another which would give the most high-profile Republican a chance to advance in a runoff.

"If Republicans consolidated around Garvey, you could imagine him getting 30% or so of the vote. So he could even finish first, in the first round," Newton said. "The problem for him is the second round."

A united Democratic front, with additional help from registered Independents, likely leaves Garvey with little chance of winning in November. Republicans haven't won a statewide race in California since 2006. The last time the party won a U.S. Senate race was Pete Wilson's re-election bid in 1988.

Although left of Feinstein, Schiff, who recent polling shows is the frontrunner, will have his own battles with his fellow party members both in March and possibly in November.

Porter and Lee are considered to be the more progressive options for the Democrats and, although Newton believes Schiff would probably come out on top in a runoff against either of them, he won’t rule out an upset.

"Porter or Lee might sort of catch fire and run a progressive campaign to Schiff's left, and that might pose a danger for him in the runoff," he said.

So how do the three Democrats stand out in Monday's debate?

Newton expects Porter to bank on her values and her refusal of corporate campaign contributions as she tries to "cast herself as the only populist, economic liberal, the only one to stand against money."

For Lee, expect her to pitch herself in a "biographical way," Newton said, someone who has overcome countless challenges in her life.

"She has been homeless, she's raised children on her own, she's experienced discrimination in ways that the other two just haven't," he said. "So I think that hers is a more personal way of distinguishing herself from the field."

And for Schiff, staying on message as the mainstream Democrat seems like the obvious path to take.

Newton expects the three Democrats to try and pitch themselves to voters while going after Garvey, rather than each other.

The sole Republican on stage, Garvey will likely be challenged often. He's already drawn some ire after he refused to say if he would vote for President Joe Biden or Donald Trump in the November General election, prompting Porter to taunt him with, "Once a Dodger, always a Dodger."

Newton hopes Garvey will come with answers to Monday's debate, rather than try to walk the tightrope between not angering his Trump-leaning base while running a campaign with broader appeal.

"I just don't know what Steve Garvey stands for, or why he's running in this race," Newton said. "He's asking people to invest their confidence in him and for him to represent their views in Washington, but he won't say what his own views are."

While Newton expects that one of the Democrats on stage will eventually be California's next Senator, but unless two Democrats are in the runoff, there will be uncertainty.

"You get into a runoff, you're one out of two, something can always happen, right?" he said. "The candidate can say something just astronomical, can just ball up. So it's not crazy to think that there might be something so disruptive, that you end up backing into the Senate seat."

The hourlong live debate takes place Monday, Feb, 12 starting at 7 p.m. and will be moderated by Inside California Politics hosts Frank Buckley and Nikki Laurenzo.

Viewers can watch the debate on any of these Nexstar California TV stations or websites: KRON in San Francisco, KTLA in Los Angeles, KSWB in San Diego, KTXL in Sacramento, KSEE in Fresno and KGET in Bakersfield.

Viewers can join the conversation by using the hashtag #CASenDebate.

The candidates in Monday night's debate were Democrats Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Rep. Katie Porter (D-Orange County) and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), along with Republican front-runner Steve Garvey.

The debate began with the candidates offering opinions on whether President Joe Biden should issue an executive order to secure the border. Rep. Schiff called the idea of a border wall "draconian," but said he supported executive action on the border. Rep. Porter called for a "lawful, orderly and humane" immigration system but declined to directly say she supported executive action on the border.

Rep. Lee called for "comprehensive" border reform while saying that she supported executive action on the border.

Garvey laid the blame for the current situation on the border on President Biden and called for a clampdown on illegal migrants entering the country.

Watch the exchange on the border below

Recent polls have seen Schiff maintain his status as front-runner. In a recent ad, the Burbank representative, who established a national profile leading the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump, has tried to cast the race as a binary choice between himself and leading GOP candidate, Garvey.

Garvey, a former Major League Baseball great with no political experience, has pulled level with Porter in second place, according to recent polls. Porter, meanwhile, the SoCal rep famous for her whiteboards, needed a breakout moment in Monday's debate, according to one political analyst.

The same might be said for Lee. The Bay Area progressive has fallen behind in both fundraising and the polls, having seen her support among voters surveyed drop to single digits.

In Monday's debate, she addressed her calls for a $50 minimum wage.

"Just do the math. Of course, we have national minimum wages that we need to raise to a living wage, we're talking about $20-$25, fine. But I've got to be focused on what California needs," the congresswoman said.

Candidates weigh in on minimum wage

The other candidates on the stage offered differing views on minimum wage, with Garvey distinguishing himself by saying he didn't believe minimum wage needed to be changed.

'Once a Dodger, always a Dodger'

After being hit by a zinger from Rep. Porter in the first debate over whether he planned to vote for Trump, Garvey was again evasive when it came to the former president. This time, the former MLB great refused to say whether or not he'd accept an endorsement from former president Donald Trump. (Watch his answer below)

Candidates on Israel-Hamas conflict

Whether very little daylight between the race's three leading Democrats on most issues, the question of how they viewed the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas offered them a chance to differentiate themselves.

While all four candidates supported Israel's right to defend itself, they offered differing opinions with Lee calling for a permanent ceasefire, Porter pushing for a bilateral ceasefire, and Schiff calling for a "humanitarian pause."

Garvey was the only candidate on stage who declined to back a two-state solution, saying that "to think that there would be a two-state solution is naive, because one of those states will always try to annihilate Israel."

The debate was moderated by Inside California Politics hosts Nikki Laurenzo and Frank Buckley.

Steve Garvey, the leading Republican candidate vying for the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein's seat, doesn't have a career in elected office like his fellow front runners. His name is better known on the baseball diamond than Capitol Hill.

Garvey, 75, grew up outside California but came to the Golden State when he was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1968.

The first baseman played with the Dodgers until 1982 – even collecting a World Series win along the way – before moving a few hours south to play with the San Diego Padres. His nickname was "Mr. Clean," according to MLB.com. Garvey's MLB career spanned nearly two decades.

Outside of baseball, Garvey hosted a morning radio show, made a few TV show appearances (including one episode of "Baywatch"), and started a marketing firm, according to CalMatters.

His political involvement, until now, has largely involved fundraising for other candidates, CalMatters reports.

Garvey has touted that political outsider status in this run for U.S. Senate, his first time going for elected office. He laments violent crime, homelessness and "failing schools" in his statement written for the state voter guide and blames politicians for letting Californians down. His campaign promises include increasing funding for law enforcement, support for Israel and Ukraine, and investing in water-saving infrastructure.

But his Democratic opponents depict him as a political novice who is unprepared for the Senate at a time of global unrest. Garvey also has seen attacks on his character tied to 1980s sex scandals that sullied his reputation as “Mr. Clean,” the nickname that referred to his buttoned-down image from his Dodger days. At the time he admitted to having two children with women he wasn’t married to, then married another woman, his current wife.

He has said of those days, “I think our life is a journey. … I’ve gone through a difficult time here and there. I’ve learned from it.”

Garvey's will be one of more than two dozen names to appear on the Senate primary ballot in California, though many of them are political unknowns. Under state rules, Democrats and Republicans appear on the same primary ballot and the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of political party.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Over the past week, Republican candidate Steve Garvey has garnered the most interest on Google, thanks possibly in part to rival Rep. Adam Schiff's campaign including him in a new political ad.

Garvey is easily the least known to voters of the top four candidates. The three Democratic contenders are all U.S. Congressional representatives, two of whom have served more than 20 years.

Garvey was likely a better-known name in the state throughout the 70s and 80s when he played professional baseball in Southern California, first for the Los Angeles Dodgers and then with the San Diego Padres.

Over the last 12 months, however, it's Schiff that drives the most Google searches.

Schiff made a name for himself nationally over the past few years as an outspoken critic of former President Donald Trump. The representative from Burbank led the first impeachment inquiry into Trump in 2019, making him a go-to target for Republicans.

Indeed, by far the highest number of Google searches any candidate pulled this year was when House Republicans censured Schiff in July over his role in the investigations into Trump.

Garvey earned the least amount of searches over the course of the year, though. Unlike the other candidates, he only announced his campaign in October. The campaign announcement surged the number of Garvey-related Google searches, earning him the second-largest spike of the year.

Lee also had her time in the national spotlight, though the moment has mostly since faded from the national consciousness.

The representative from Oakland cast the only vote in either House of Congress against the Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001 following the Sept. 11 attacks. This move drew national attention and bipartisan criticism at the time. In recent years, Lee's vote against what her office continues to call a "blank check for endless war" is more often seen as prescient.

Katie Porter, the youngest top candidate by more than a decade, has only been in Congress since 2019 but has managed to make a slight impression on the national stage through her use of visual aids and by asking pointed questions to business executives and government leaders in congressional hearings.

Beyond the top four, more than 20 other candidates are vying for the Senate seat formerly held by Dianne Feinstein. Search interest for even the most recognizable names among those contenders, such as former KTLA reporter Christina Pascucci or perennial candidate Attorney Eric Early, remains minimal.

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Rep. Katie Porter (D-Orange County), Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) and leading Republican contender Steve Garvey will meet on the debate stage at the KRON 4 News TV studio in San Francisco.

Inside California Politics hosts Frank Buckley and Nikki Laurenzo will moderate the debate.

The live debate is scheduled for one hour, starting at 7 p.m. PST and ending by 8 p.m. PST.

Viewers can watch the debate on any of these Nexstar California TV stations or websites: KRON in San Francisco, KTLA in Los Angeles, KSWB in San Diego, KTXL in Sacramento, KSEE in Fresno and KGET in Bakersfield.

Viewers can join the conversation by using the hashtag #CASenDebate.

In a poll released Thursday, Schiff continued to lead the race, while Porter and Garvey were tied at second place, followed by Lee.

The top two vote-getters in the March 5 primary election, regardless of party, will advance to the Nov. 5 general election.

Participating candidates have qualified by meeting these specific campaign and fundraising thresholds.

The debate will air across the following Nexstar California stations:

Additionally, the debate will be carried by these California stations:

The hour-long debate, airing exclusively on KRON 4 and other California stations in the Nexstar Media Group, will be the second chance for candidates to face off on the stage in hopes of earning a spot in November’s general election. 

“This next debate will make a big difference,” said Dr. Christian Grose, a professor of political science and public policy at USC. 

The difference, Grose says, will impact the race for second place between Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey, who each polled at 15% in a California Elections and Policy poll from USC California State University, Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona released on Thursday. The two candidates receiving the most votes in the March primary will be on the ballot for the Nov. 5 general election, regardless of party affiliation. 

Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff maintained his solid grip on the lead with the support of 25% of the more than 1,400 likely voters surveyed. Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee remained in fourth place with 7% support. 

While Schiff isn’t the inevitable, without-a-doubt winner of the primary just yet, Grose said, it appears that the deadlocked race for second between Porter and Garvey should be the focal point Monday. 

“Who comes in second is really important,” Grose said. “If Porter comes in second, it’s going to be really competitive with two Democrats running against each other in the general election. All voters will be up for grabs. 

“If Garvey comes in second and faces Schiff, it’s also consequential. At first, it would seem like it’s Schiff’s race to win pretty easily because the state is overwhelmingly Democratic.” 

Garvey’s performance in the first debate on Jan. 22 came under scrutiny for his refusal to commit to vote for former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election — despite admitting he’d voted for him in 2016 and 2020. 

Porter weaponized that hesitancy while pulling from Garvey’s history as a star baseball player for the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 1970s and early 80s. The 2024 U.S. Senate race is the 75-year-old's first official run for public office. 

“Once a dodger, always a dodger,” Porter said in response to Garvey’s reluctance to endorse the former President. 

The second debate on Monday could be Garvey’s chance to show California’s republican voters which side of the party he tows, Grose said. 

“The more right-wing Republicans in the state are unsure about him, the more middle and left-wing voters in the state are unsure about him,” Grose said. “I think he’s got to pick a lane.” 

Grose said a focus on policy and an eagerness to engage in battles with his Democrat competitors could help the Republican, who is at risk of “losing the energy” he built up among California’s right ahead of the first debate. 

“Garvey did not help himself in [the first] debate,” Grose said. 

Garvey’s loss could be Porter’s gain as she contends for a spot on the general ballot.  

“This debate is really critical for her,” Grose said. “I think Katie Porter has to break out now and decide does she really want to go after Schiff directly, or does she want to present herself as the alternative to Schiff and to Garvey in order to make it to the general election.” 

As for Schiff, he could use Monday to decide who he wants his main opponent to be for the rest of the primary season. 

“I think what he’s going to try to do is play up Garvey even more like he’s been doing in his ads, make it a Schiff vs. Garvey race — a Democrat vs. a Republican,” Grose said. “If it’s Schiff vs. Porter, it creates a little more risk for Schiff.” 

The debate airs live on KRON 4 and on kron4.com on Monday, Feb. 12 at 7 p.m.

On February 12 at 7 p.m., Adam Schiff, Steve Garvey, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee will go on stage against each other at the KRON-TV studios in San Francisco. There are three ways you can watch the debate live: on TV, on our website, or through our app.

“As Your Local Election Headquarters, KRON-TV will host the top four candidates for the primary
nomination for U.S. Senate,” said KRON-TV Vice President and General Manager Jim Rose. “With our broadcast partners across Nexstar, we’re committed to keeping voters throughout California informed and ahead of the curve when it comes to electing our leaders.”

The debate will air across the following Nexstar California stations:

Additionally, the debate will be carried by these California stations:

If you are not able to watch it on broadcast TV, you can watch the debate on our website kron4.com or through the KRON 4 app on the Apple App store or on the Android Play store.

The debate starts on Monday, Feb. 12 at 7 p.m.

Monday's debate live from the KRON 4 News TV studio will air between 7 and 8 p.m. The debate will also be streamed live on kron4.com and on the KRON 4 app.

In addition to KRON 4, the debate will air exclusively across Nexstar's California television stations and digital platforms, including KTLA-TV in Los Angeles, KSWB-TV in San Diego, KTXL-TV in Sacramento, KSEE-TV in Fresno, and KGET-TV in Bakersfield.

The debate will air Monday, Feb. 12 at 7 p.m. across the following Nexstar California stations and their digital platforms:

Additionally, the debate will be carried by these California stations:

The three leading Democratic candidates, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Rep. Katie Porter (D-Orange County) and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) will be joined onstage by leading Republican contender Steve Garvey. The debate will be moderated by Inside California Politics hosts Frank Buckley and Nikki Laurenzo.

Candidates participating in the debate have met specific campaign and fundraising thresholds. For more on the criteria for qualifying for Monday's debate, click here.

Recent polls have seen Schiff maintaining his front-runner status with Garvey and Porter virtually tied for second, and Lee trailing behind. The top two candidates in California's March 5 primary will face each other in November's general election.

Voting is about to start, with a Monday deadline for counties to mail ballots.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, who rose to national prominence as the lead prosecutor in then-President Donald Trump’s first impeachment trial, has built up a a dominant advantage in fundraising while consistently topping polls. But a large chunk of voters remains undecided heading toward the March 5 election.

Under California rules, Democrats and Republicans appear on the same primary ballot and the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of political party. Schiff, who has warehoused plenty of money to blanket the state with ads on TV, cable and streaming services, appears to be in the strongest position to gain one of those two November slots.

He’s being pursued by two other well-known Democratic House members, Reps. Barbara Lee and Katie Porter, and Republican and former Los Angeles Dodgers star Steve Garvey, a former National League MVP who is making his first run for public office 37 years after retiring from baseball.

In all, more than two dozen names will appear on the Senate ballot for the six-year term that begins next year, though many of them are political unknowns.

Come November, the seat is expected to stay in Democratic hands in a state where Republicans haven’t won a U.S. Senate election since 1988.

With Schiff appearing poised to take one of the November spots, Porter's campaign has been routinely targeting Garvey, with a recent fundraising email warning the former MVP's fame threatened to “be the reason we lose Katie’s voice in Congress for good.”

Schiff, meanwhile, is running ads statewide that call Garvey “too conservative for California,” which might be intended to lift Garvey's profile with conservatives and dampen Porter's chances since Garvey would be a longshot in the fall.

Porter said in a statement that Schiff is trying “to game the system to get an opponent they have the best chance of defeating” in November.

Feinstein died in September, ending a long career in which she broke gender barriers and was a passionate advocate for abortion rights and gun control. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed Laphonza Butler, a longtime Democratic organizer, to fulfill Feinstein's term, and Butler chose not to seek election to the seat.

The race is unfolding at a time when the state's once-soaring population has been in decline, and polling shows many Californians are unhappy about the direction of the state, inflation and an unchecked homeless crisis in Los Angeles and other big cities.

The presidential race could color the outcome — and possibly depress turnout on both sides.

While running against only token opposition in the primary, President Joe Biden's popularity has been sagging and he is struggling with key voting groups, including Latinos and independents, California polling has found. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump is the heavy favorite to claim the Republican nomination, which could dampen GOP turnout if it appears the contest is essentially over by early March.

Garvey brought a jolt of celebrity to the race, but his challenge is first consolidating the GOP base – he’s dueling for Republican votes with attorney Eric Early, who previously has run unsuccessfully for state attorney general and Congress. Democrats have sought to inflame GOP tensions and discourage independents from choosing Garvey by spotlighting his indecision on the White House contest: Garvey has declined to say if he will vote for Trump this year, after supporting him in 2016 and 2020.

He’s one of the few Republicans with a widely recognizable name to run for statewide office in years. In 2016 and 2018, GOP Senate candidates performed so poorly that two Democrats appeared on the November ballot. In 2022, Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla had a walkover win against little-known Republican Mark Meuser.

While Garvey is well-known to an older generation of baseball fans, Democrats e depict him as a political novice unprepared for the Senate at a time of global unrest. Garvey also has seen attacks on his character tied to 1980s sex scandals that sullied his reputation as “Mr. Clean,” a moniker that referred to his buttoned-down image from his Dodger days. At the time he admitted to having two children with women he wasn’t married to, then married another woman, his current wife.

He has said of those days, “I think our life is a journey. … I’ve gone through a difficult time here and there. I’ve learned from it.”

The leading Democrats are mostly indistinguishable on policy issues but the contest has highlighted fissures on the party's left wing, including over the Israel-Hamas war and so-called congressional earmark funds.

The attorney Porter has presented herself as a suburban soccer mom who keeps a keen eye on corporate excess from Capitol Hill — often using a whiteboard to break down complex information at congressional hearings. Schiff, a former prosecutor, has emerged as the establishment favorite and counts former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi among his supporters. Lee often spotlights her compelling life story — she fought to become her high school’s first Black cheerleader and was once homeless, after fleeing an abusive marriage. And she also was the only member of Congress to vote against the authorization for the use of military force after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

In a recent televised debate, Lee called for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, while Schiff has been outspoken in support of Israel's right to defend itself. Porter opposes earmarks — where lawmakers direct federal spending to a specific project or institution back home — while Schiff and Lee endorsed them.

Schiff, a former federal prosecutor, made clear at the start of his campaign that he intended to anchor his candidacy to his role as Trump’s chief antagonist in Congress. In his campaign kickoff video, he said the “biggest job of his life” was serving as impeachment manager, and he promised to continue to be a “fighter” for democracy.

In June, Schiff was censured by the Republican-led House on a party-line vote for comments he made during the investigations into former President Donald Trump’s ties to Russia. During that time, the congressman was a frequent presence on TV and rolled out online fundraising pitches, including on the day of the vote when he urged supporters to “become a founding donor” of his Senate campaign.

The poll, which was conducted from Jan. 21-29, involved more than 1,400 likely voters and has a 2.6% margin of error.

It showed Rep. Schiff with the support of 25% of those surveyed, while fellow Democrat Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey each garnered 15%. Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee polled at 7%, and the survey found the rest of the field was at or near 1% or less.

29% of likely voters were still undecided.

An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll released in mid-January also showed Schiff polling at 25%, but Garvey (18%) had surged ahead of Porter (13%).

The top two candidates in the March 5 primary will face each other in November’s general election to determine who will succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

The poll also found Garvey, a former Major League Baseball star who played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, does not appear to be capitalizing on his baseball biography. Garvey’s support among Dodgers fans (16%) closely aligned with his overall support.

The poll was conducted through the University of Southern California’s Dornsife/Price Center for Urban Politics and Policy, California State University Long Beach, and Cal Poly Pomona.

Other Poll Results:

• Porter leads among Latino voters (19%), followed by Garvey (16%) and Schiff (14%).
• Asian American voters support Schiff (27%) over Porter (11%) and Lee (10%). Steve Garvey polled at 5% among this group.
• In the March 2024 GOP presidential primary election, Donald Trump (66%) has a lead over Nikki Haley (28%).
• Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón is leading in his bid for a second term. Gascón polled at 15% in the crowded field. Five other candidates were in the single digits.

KRON4 and its parent company, Nexstar Media Group, will host an exclusive multi-platform debate from our San Francisco studio involving Adam Schiff, Steve Garvey, Katie Porter, and Barbara Lee, on Feb. 12.

Boxer had previously said she would stay neutral on the race but now says recent events in the race have caused her to change her mind.

"There's been more than one attack by Katie Porter on Adam Schiff," Boxer said. "The first one was during the debate, she accused him of taking dirty money. Adam is playing by the rules of the game. Katie Porter, if she doesn't take PAC money, that's fine. But don't go after a fellow Democrat after you've taken his money in the past for your House race and say he's taking dirty money."

Another event that the former Senator said irked her occurred this week.

Schiff's campaign released a political ad attacking Republican candidate Steve Garvey. The ad was seen by some analysts as an effort to raise the Republican's profile during the primary in hopes that Schiff would be pitted against him in November, all but assuring Schiff's win in a Democrat-heavy state.

Porter released a statement calling the move "brazenly cynical."

“Adam Schiff knows he will lose to me in November," Poster posted on social media. "That’s what this brazenly cynical ad is about—furthering his own political career, boxing out qualified Democratic women candidates, and boosting a Republican candidate to do it. We need honest leadership, not political games.”

Boxer said Schiff has been nothing but an ally to women in politics.

"And now saying that he's against women when Adam Schiff has been, what we call as women in politics, Sir Galahad. He's a Sir Galahad. That's why Nancy Pelosi endorsed him. He's a great guy and he's been side by side with us every step of the way. So yes, this has pushed me over the line."

Galahad is a knight from Arthurian legend famed for his purity.